5 Hidden Factors That Determine Whether Your Favorite Show Gets Renewed or Axed

All good things must come to an end, but beloved shows often get the axe before fans are ready to let them go. This is pretty common in the world of streaming, where high-budget thrillers are often shown the door before season three. Network TV was once known for letting sleepers percolate until they found their mojo, but those halcyon days are pretty much a thing of the past.

A show’s fan base factors into its fate, but from reality TV to science fiction fantasies, multiple elements go into deciding its future. One thing you can be sure of. Every important metric leads to one determinant — profitability. 

Some of the most popular TV shows started off limping but were kept on air as network executive passion projects. Others were resuscitated after cancellation by the outcry of fans. 

• “Seinfeld” ran for nine seasons, despite early, tepid reviews, thanks to NBC executive Rick Ludwin. Ludwin believed in the show so much that he borrowed funds from NBC’s specials budget to keep it running. Ten Emmys later, the “show about nothing” is still considered one of the best of all time.
• “The Office,” another NBC sleeper, was headed for the trash heap after season one. It was given mouth-to-mouth by NBC Entertainment head Kevin Reilly, who loved the show and bet on Steve Carell’s rising star power. Strong fan support through the iTunes store, where first-season episodes were available for purchase, backed up Reilly’s instinct. Eventually, fan power turned “The Office” into an iconic classic.
• When the original “Star Trek” faced a possible cancellation after its second season, fans mobilized and organized a letter-writing campaign demanding additional episodes. NBC renewed the show, though profitability likely played a role there too: Star Trek was popular among owners of NBC parent company RCA's color TVs, giving the network a financial incentive to keep it on air.

These legendary examples are rarely happening today. Powerful C-suite sponsors and loyal fans still impact a show’s fate but often require additional bolstering from big-name stars, executive showrunners, and line producers who manage budgets. In today’s market, however, even a coalition of high-ranking, well-known insiders may not be enough to override cancellation if a show doesn’t support profit.

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Streaming platforms analyze multiple metrics, but few carry the weight of the finish rate. The finish, or completion rate, refers to the percentage of viewers who watch a full season through to the last episode. If enough viewers binge the show quickly, that gets extra points from decision makers. 

It makes sense that viewers who don’t watch a full season are less likely to tune in for the next one, especially if a year or more goes by.

In some instances, a highly anticipated show will generate tons of pre-air buzz, only to falter mid-season. If a large percentage of viewers sign onto a subscriber platform for access to that specific show but don’t remain engaged, the show is likely to get axed rather than marketed or reinvented.

A series with a strong seasonal finish rate, like Hulu’s “The Handmaid’s Tale,” or HBO’s “The Last of Us,” indicates optimal viewer engagement. These shows are bound to get renewed, since they ensure a steady stream of subscriber dollars.

Dragons, dinosaurs, and blown-up buildings don’t come cheap. Streamers and networks rely on blockbusters to bolster their street cred and bottom line, but not every sci-fi extravaganza is worth its budget. Cold, hard math matters more than movie magic here.

Execs analyze viewer numbers and the finish rate against the cost of making any show. “Game of Thrones” was one of the most popular cable series of all time and also one of the most expensive, with per-episode budgets that climbed from around $6 million in its first season to $15 million by its last. The critically acclaimed jewel in HBO's crown lasted for eight seasons and is estimated to have generated around $2.2 billion in profit for HBO, according to one media analyst's detailed breakdown of production costs, subscriber growth, and merchandising revenue. But not every show is “Game of Thrones.” The fantasy epic still racks up viewership dollars on HBO Max.

Disney+ execs had high hopes for “Secret Invasion,” a Marvel Studios miniseries you either loved or have never heard of. Despite a star-studded cast and massive budget, the 2023 series fizzled out within its first five days and wasn’t renewed for season two.  

There are shows that get your full attention and others that serve as comforting background noise. In my house, these are typically sitcoms like “New Girl,” “Everybody Loves Raymond,” and “Friends.”

The average person checks their phone 186 times per day. You can be assured that there’s a TV show gently playing in the background during at least a few of those forays into the internet’s yawning abyss.

Background-noise shows are sometimes referred to as laundry TV, since your full attention isn’t needed to enjoy them. The most popular laundry TV shows are watched on endless repeat by large numbers of viewers. They have relatively low budgets (no dragons) and fan bases that drive significant retention dollars. Even if the series has reached its end, these shows are likely to remain on streamers unless their contract runs out.

Even when a show clears every other hurdle, the numbers can still catch up with it at contract renewal time. The more popular a show, the more negotiating power its studios and star players have come contract renewal time. And it's not just actors. Writers, directors, and producers all have individual contracts that come up regularly for renewal. The all-important contribution of the technical crews that handle lighting, cameras, wardrobe, and more is typically negotiated by unions.

Licensing agreements and contract renewals may be held annually in some instances. Traditionally, network TV shows have the longest-running contracts, but aren’t immune to pay disputes that fizzle and eventually end a show’s popularity before its time.

Highly profitable shows can yield the thorniest renewals, especially if the cast includes non-U.S. actors. If ever-increasing costs outweigh profits, the show may be cut, even if fans are yearning for more. “Emily in Paris,” which is saying au revoir after season six, may have met this fate, although the reasons for its demise have not been confirmed. As fans on X have mentioned, Netflix never owned the rights to the show, but rather rented it from Paramount Television Studios. It’s said that the show’s viewership was starting to decline, and bonus payments were adding up. Even so, Netflix had a really good run with “Emily,” and likely acquired a large, stickaround viewership, based on the show’s ongoing popularity.

Shows end, and fans grieve. That’s just the way of it. No matter how beloved a series is, the money has the final word. The good news is there’s always a new show to watch and enjoy. Just don’t let the cost of streaming get you down.

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